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It was a good weekend for wide receivers at the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. (Justin Simmons, who was one of the NFL's best safeties a year ago, is still waiting for his first Pro Bowl appearance.). His time may come, but maybe not for a while. Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans is having himself a season. He looked to be firmly on a Hall trajectory at that point, but over the ensuing five seasons, he has just one Pro Bowl appearance. Only Chandler Jones and Aaron Donald have more sacks since the start of 2017. Meanwhile, Johnson spent the first 12 years of his career with the expansion Texans, who didnt make the playoffs until his ninth season with quarterback play that ran the gamut from dreadful to above average. 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OBJ hasn't made a Pro Bowl since 2016, and while this could be a bounce-back year for the former Giants star, another middling campaign would push him into the "Work to do" tier. You can't make the Hall of Fame while you're still in pads, but Mike Evans has been making his case over the past six seasons. Unlike Gurley, McCaffrey didn't win Offensive Player of the Year or make a deep playoff run. I'm right there in the 50/50 range. Collins was a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in 2016 and has three Pro Bowls across his first five seasons. You could also make the argument that Murray should be up a level after being taken with the No. Ten years after he retires, we're more likely to look at his two first-team All-Pro nods and forget those times he guessed wrong and gave up touchdowns with the Chiefs and Rams. Last season was the first time Peterson missed an NFL game or failed to make the Pro Bowl, with both owing to his six-game PED suspension. Collins retired with 70 touchdown receptions, sixth-best total in NFL history at the time and more than Hall of Fame receivers Lynn Swann, Art Monk, Bobby Mitchell, Michael Irvin and John Stallworth. I had Wagner as a lock when I first compiled this list. All rights reserved. Of the 27 Hall-eligible players who have pulled that off, 14 are enshrined. An interesting case could be made for Frank Gore, who is third all-time in rushing with 16,000 yards in a 16-season career with five teams, but tied for 19th in touchdowns with 81. . In my Week 10 WR/CB matchups piece, I highlight the upcoming matchup between Evans and Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson and say that we might be seeing two Canton-bound players go at each other in a one-on-one heavyweight matchup.. In part, that has been driven by health; the only other wideout ranking in the top 100 for receiving yards who has played all 80 games over the past five seasons is Larry Fitzgerald. In the running (40% to 69%): S Eddie Jackson. Kittle is the best all-around tight end in football right now, and if you could tell me this minute that he would have a 12-year career, I'd expect him to be a Hall of Famer. Hester was a (great) returner, which typically doesn't inspire the same sort of fervor as other All-Pro nods, while Jackson actually started with three consecutive All-Pro nods before dropping off and retiring after nine years. Jones should make up some of that difference in 2020, and after Fitzgerald retires, he should be able to challenge the Cardinals great for that second spot. Hightower and McCourty have made only two Pro Bowls each, and while they'll get a bump for their Super Bowl rings, it's tough to imagine them getting in when guys like Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel didn't make it from the first era of Pats Super Bowl winners. He previously worked as the sports editor at the Corpus Christi Caller-Times. He has eight Pro Bowl appearances, but he has never been a first-team All-Pro, never really been a viable pick as the best quarterback in football and has a total of four MVP votes across 14 seasons as a starter. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? One more Pro Bowl would probably do the trick. Xavien Howard made the Pro Bowl in 2018 and would be the best candidate, but he has missed an average of six games per season across his four pro campaigns. Rockets great and championship coach Rudy Tomjanovich was only inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2021. Top-10 picks who make it to the Pro Bowl as rookies have a great track record. Let's see whether we can get a sense of who those 50 are right now: Jump to a team: There aren't any Dolphins who would appear to have greater than a 10% chance of making the Hall of Fame. Warren Moon played until he was 44. Allen was named a Pro Bowler after racking up 10.5 sacks as a rookie. Lewan has three Pro Bowls. It hasn't been for lack of trying on his part, though. Seymour has a better rsum and more Super Bowl rings and hasn't made it in, but he peaked earlier in his career; if Campbell can stay productive and win a ring or two with the Ravens, it might push him into more significant consideration. Even if Hopkins takes a step backward without Deshaun Watson, he's probably just a couple of Pro Bowls from getting in. The two first-time eligible players who stand out on next years ballot are defensive end Julius Peppers and tight end Antonio Gates. Nelson is one of seven players to start his career with two consecutive first-team All-Pro nods, a group that includes four Hall of Famers, Devin Hester and Keith Jackson. I'd like to see a bigger sample before I treat that rate as gospel, and players such as DeAngelo Hall and Everson Walls had long careers without making it to the Hall, but Lattimore is off to a promising start. Hes No. Guy got some help because the Raiders drafted him with their first-round pick, while Hekker gets extra attention because of his propensity for fakes. I polled my Twitter followers and found that 42.6% of voters thought Rivers was a Hall of Famer. In the running (40% to 69%): S Jamal Adams. He might not make it on the first ballot, but he should make it eventually. Assessing Browns' FA needs. I think his five-year peak with the Seahawks probably would have been enough to get him in, but earning a sixth Pro Bowl trip with the 49ers last season only helped his chances. Dan Orlovsky denounces the NFL Network's Top 100 players for 2020 for excluding Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. McShay's favorite pick for all 32 teams He also came up with an interception while winning his first Super Bowl, which helps his case. The suspension hurts Peterson's chances, but with eight Pro Bowls and three All-Pro appearances across his first eight seasons, his prior track record was impeccable. QB Anthony Richardson rejects 'project label' entering combine, Texans terminate center Justin Britt's contract, Bun B, Badu, J.J. Watt celebrate RodeoHouston Southern Takeover. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. The best trade Andy Reid ever made was moving up in the draft for Mahomes in 2017. Elroy "Crazylegs" Hirsch, future Hall of Fame wide receiver, led the best draft class in Rams history in 1945. As it stands, though, Gurley doesn't have enough on his rsum to get in. The first game of the 2023 NFL calendar is . Syndication Packersnews Work to do (10% to 39%): WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, G David DeCastro, DE Cameron Heyward, S Minkah Fitzpatrick. If Wagner makes it to another Pro Bowl or two, I don't think Willis' status will matter. People in favor of him will point to his stats, which are clearly better than those of Eli Manning, but that ignores the point; Manning isn't getting into the Hall because of his regular-season stats. Gore is third in career rushing yards, which owes much to the fact that he also ranks third in carries. In 1996, he decided to play football full-time. In the running (40% to 69%): QB Deshaun Watson. He's an easy Hall of Famer. Even if he slows down from here on out, Miller's going to the Hall. The reason Jackson is in this section and Fuller is in the next group is that Jackson has made two Pro Bowls in three seasons while Fuller has two across six years. Mike Evans is on pace to be a Hall of Fame caliber wide receiver. podcast, future Hall of Fame wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, aware of the Raiders and Jets being interested in trading for the always-grumbling MVP. He was excellent in his third season, but since then, his production has roughly been in line with that of Robby Anderson. On a weekly basis, Evans is a volatile player, but his year-over-year production has been incredibly consistent. Randy Moss. We still have to see what happens with the former LSU star, but of the 24 quarterbacks drafted with the first overall pick since the merger, five are either Hall of Famers or extremely likely to be enshrined. They both need multiple All-Pro seasons before they can rise up the ranks. Brees could have retired five years ago and comfortably made the Hall of Fame. In recent years Seattle has gained somewhat of a reputation as being the last stop for future Hall of Fame wide receivers. He has two first-team All-Pro appearances over the past five years, but it's likely too little, too late. Jackson and teammate Kyle Fuller both slipped last season, but each earned Pro Bowl nods, and that's going to matter more to voters 15 years from now than how either player actually performed in 2019. Browns star left tackle Joe Thomas and Jets greats Joe . Disputed loan at center of Commanders probe, Picking the top bounce-back candidates for all 32 NFL teams, Football historians talk about the game in a previous pandemic, Ranking the NFL's top 25 prospects: Young players who could break out in 2020, last attempted something like this column in June 2016, 42.6% of voters thought Rivers was a Hall of Famer, honor his request and trade the 25-year-old, trading a first-rounder to the Bills in 2009. Stanley was a first-team All-Pro last season, which was his first serious recognition as a superstar. He was nearly a lock after making four Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pro nods across his first five seasons, but injuries have cost Thomas 20 games over the subsequent four years. Garrett has played at a much higher level than Mayfield, but the $125 million man has missed 11 of 48 games thanks to various injuries and his season-ending suspension in 2019. Scouting reports | More draft coverage. As he enters the league, Young's chances of making the Hall of Fame on draft status alone sneak him into consideration. Jackson does an incredible job of avoiding hits and getting out of bounds, but there's naturally going to be questions about whether a quarterback can run the ball 10 times per game in the modern NFL and have a 15-year career as a starter. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. White got his just due last season and was named a first-team All-Pro while tying for the league lead in interceptions (six). In the running (40% to 69%): DE Danielle Hunter, S Harrison Smith. He isn't going to catch Jerry Rice, but he's just under 5,000 yards behind Larry Fitzgerald, who ranks second in career receiving yards. Rivers is probably the most difficult case to parse among veteran players. 4 overall pick will start his career at left tackle after Nate Solder opted out of this season. In other words, instead of trying to project their chances by guessing what they'll do in the future, I'm looking at what they've done so far, comparing them to players at similar points in their careers, and seeing how often players with those sorts of careers made it into the Hall of Fame. Not all elite prospects turn into Hall-of-Famers, but given Evans draft capital, physical profile and college production, its reasonable to say that what hes done in the NFL hasnt been a random fluke. Where does Evans slot in? 2 with 6,103 yards. In related news, the Cowboys also have a running back likely bound for the Hall. Complicating things for Johnson is the logjam of candidates at his position. Wagner turned 30 in June, and after eight seasons in the league, he has six Pro Bowl appearances and five first-team All-Pro nominations. In the running (40% to 69%): DE Chandler Jones.